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New Years Predictions for 2003
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FTLComm - Tisdale - Wednesday January 1, 2003 |
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The other day I received an e-mail message from an American who
had stumbled across the 2002 predictions and was profoundly disturbed with me. Like
many Americans and Canadians alike he was a bit confused about geography and was
not aware that this is a Canadian publication and that Tisdale is in the middle of
Canada. When in an exchange of messages I pointed out that I was not only anti-Bush
I was decidedly anti-American, given the present configuration of Canada and United
States relations. The man did not grasp the concept that I was not a democrat.
This process of creating a set of predictions for the new year has been a part of
this web site since its beginning and you can go back and see how I have had years
were I was close, where I missed by a mile and this past year I wish I had not been
so close to the mark. |
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Before we get into 2003 lets review how last years
predictions turned out: |
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World financial picture:
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I predicted a serious economic problem and as expected the stock market lost about
one third its value with the US economy shuffling toward disaster and the poor countries
of the world bashed horribly.
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Canadian Politics:
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Ontario's election of a new leader really did matter and
the "common sense" policies are being quietly smothered The Canadian Alliance
leadership race turned into a leadership for the Alberta Separatist party. Just as
predicted the real political fight of the year was within the Liberal party. Where
I got it wrong was the unexpected nastiness and undermining of the Canadian political
process by Paul Martin who has turned out to be just like his dad.
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Oil and Energy:
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Close on this issue but missed the mark with Alberta actually enjoying a break even
situation because the rise in oil prices provided them with more revenue but their
tax cutting left the people of the province short on services as the premier continues
to blame all of his government's mistakes on the federal government. My predictions
about fuel economical cars is bang on but I was short sighted when it came to accessing
the extent of the corruption that cause the California energy shortage of the summer
before.
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Agriculture:
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Unfortunately my predictions about agriculture were accurate.
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Credibility gap:
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My predictions about US foreign policy pretty much covered the year's events
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Pendulum swing:
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This prediction about China and the far East was and is correct but the awareness
of this situation has yet to be established by North American media.
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Black Flag:
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Got this picture right, India and Pakistan did not square off and drag the world
into a nuclear winter but despite their limited hostilities World War III is already
in progress simply because of the global scale of the implications of Saudi Arabia's
continued support of international terrorism.
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What I missed:
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I don't feel all that bad about the omissions in the predictions for 2002 but they
should be noted.
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- West Nile Fever appears to be far more extensive than anyone even last summer
suspected.
- The Kyoto Protocol was something that we missed and was a major news story of
the year in Canada.
- The continued support of the conventional theories about economics and government
finance should have been address.
- The impressive backing Canadians give publicly funded medicare was one of the
clearest opinions expressed by Canadians this year and we didn't mention it in our
predictions.
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The events of 2003: |
It is the convention for we who engage in speculation about the
future to tend toward the gloom and doom. Not just because it gets more attention
from readers but because the more you think about things the less optimistic one
becomes.
As a general and wide span consideration I am for the first year in many fairly positive
about this coming year. I would like to be able to point to conditions and situations
that are improving but most of the current issues are unlikely to improve in 2003
but on a personal and neighbourly level 2003 looks good to me.
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Locally
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With the prospect of $10 Canola and $4.50 wheat rural Saskatchewan
depends completely on the whims of the Pacific Ocean and what it sends us. The climate
people are predicting a mild winter, low moisture, dry cold spring and a hot dry
summer. Based on the past few years that seems most likely. There are more bare
fields this year than in the past decade and even a modest amount of snow, two more
snowfalls like the one this week and there will be an actual spring run off and enough
water in the fields to start a crop in the spring.
Most people feel that the crop left out there is at least 85% write off. So much
depends on spring temperatures. If it is as little as 15% warmer than last spring
and there is a total of thirty inches of snow fall an average crop is possible.
I predict that for the Northern grainbelt 2003 will be an average crop year and average
will be outstanding for most producers.
For the Southern grain belt the main factor will be excessive heat and those who
plant early should get a short crop only slightly below average but actually below
this year's production. High temperatures and high winds will be the curse of the
Southwest once more.
Saskatchewan should experience a below average number of forest fires in the spring
with a high incidence of fires mid summer due to the nasty storms of 2003.
2003 is according to my predictions the summer of the storms. High winds and electrical
storms that will include more hale in the South East of the province than most years.
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Provincially
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Lorne Calvert will have to face the Saskatchewan electorate
this year but not in the spring. Though most signs point to a spring election my
bet is that the man loves to campaign in the summer and with the sad loss of the
2002 crop it would be a good idea to have the prospects of a 2003 crop to cheer up
the rural voters. Romanow did not care about winning the vote in rural Saskatchewan
and let the Saskatchewan Party have it. Calvert thinks quite differently
about the rural communities and has some worries in the cities.
So that leaves us with late June or just before harvest in mid August. I am going
with mid August.
The Saskatchewan Party has some outstanding people but could use a little help in
the leadership department. Mr. Hermanson can hold the seats he has if he
makes use of the folks in the legislature right now, but if he makes it a one man
show, he will lose a few seats.
Saskatchewan voters who showed interest in the Liberal party last time around
will smile and shake their hands and their votes will mostly go to the NDP.
NDP wins the election comfortably.
Though Mr. Hermanson will not step down after his defeat polls will show that
Yogi looks good.
One of the surprises of the election will be the return to the legislature by Dwain
Lingenfelter.
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Federal Politics
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If Paul Martin doesn't soon smarten up Canada will be truly
a fractured and confused place. Continued sniping at the Prime Minister and curious
scandals generated by Martin and his followers will make the present government totally
unable to even accomplish the simplest tasks. However, Sir Ralph the Good, Ralph
Goodale has the potential to make a difference, he can and will provide a focus
for the government to get something done while Martin and the other candidates launch
their campaigns.
I am disappointed in the destruction of Allan Rock and completely puzzled
by the moves of Brian Tobin. Something is cooking and it is out of reach,
perhaps for several years, to find out just what really has already happened. Manley
is a stooge and the Prime Minister will have less than enough influence in Ottawa
by May to play a part in establishing his successor. From the perspective of today,
the best candidate to be able to handle Martin is the retiring Prime Minister.
Paul Martin, who brought us the worst things in the Chretien era could win
next fall and become Prime Minister in February 2004. He is the man who brought
us the scandals that battered the Chretien government and he is the guy who betrayed
both his country and his leader, so the voters of Canada, even those in Ontario and
Quebec, will not share the view of the owner of a Great Lakes shipping company for
he is unelectable in a general election.
The NDP is over, it has failed in its leadership contest to discover itself
and will remain limp and useless no matter who is elected, but since the membership
vote and most members are from Saskatchewan Lorne Nystrom will assume the
leadership of a dead party that does not know it has already passed into history.
The Alberta Party, called the Canadian Alliance, lead by Alberta separatist
Stephen Harper is basically on life support. No money, no future and no Canadian
values, they are the Republican Party North.
The Progressive Conservatives need a brilliant dedicated and pro-Canadian leader
like David Orchard but the membership of the party is so heavily maritime
based, they are without the sensibility of Joe Clark, like life guards at
an empty pool.
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God Bless America
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It took a lot to get rid of the Richard Nixon and we need
to think this through. Nixon was an immoral man but he was a smart guy and made
good use of the smart guys around him. It was his cleverness and their cleverness
that eventually made it impossible for him to remain in power. That lesson has not
been lost on the Republican Party and it is unlikely they would play the same
bad hand more than once.
So this means that given George W. Bush is a dumb guy with smart people the
odds are that he will survive 2003 easily. Most sane people quit listening to him
about ten months ago but he will keep talking and saying nothing.
ENRON, the protection of the Saudis who paid for and launched the attack
on September 11 should be just some of the wounds on the US president but in 2003
though more and more people are openly opposing the government and its "let's
go bomb somebody" attitude they are after all Americans, the home of Disneyland
and Hollywood. Big talk, bad manners and only a small and powerless group
actually smarter than their moron president.
The invasion of Iraq in February is just as the Afghan sham, a confusing and
pointless use of money but not a waste of money. During Vietnam the money
that poured into the military actually propped up the economy and produced good times
for Americans.
With the primary policy engine being to gain control of the world's oil supply after
the fighting ends in Baghdad the CIA will have nursed the violence in Venezuela
to the point that the elected president will be killed in a coup or assassination.
The death of this man is completely necessary to bring Canada and Mexico
in line
The only moral high ground held by the United States will be on their television
shows and movies as the country is and will continue to be a place of utter and total
fiction.
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Israel and the Middle East
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This region of the world has a broken back, paralysis is setting
in and there is a drastic need for treatment to prevent permanent damage. What is
being done for this gravely ill patient? Surgeons Sharon and Arafat are bleeding
the patient, attaching leaches to its arms and disfiguring it sometimes with torture.
Saudi Arabia is the cause of the region and the world's agony. Ruled by filthy rich
princes and fanatical religious zealots who teach children to kill, kill, kill.
Money from Saudi Arabia funds the world's terrorism, trains and arms its soldiers
and is protected by the United States of America.
This time next year things will be the same.
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World War Three
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It actually began long before September 11, 2001 though historians
will eventually declare that they date on which the war began. It is a global conflict
only yesterday tons of ammonium nitrate were found in two sites in Indonesia while
fighting goes on in the Philippines
From Beirut to Lucknow, all of East Africa, part of West
Africa and perhaps a city near you. The war is on and driving tanks around the
Iraqi desert makes good TV shots but will only allow the fingers of war to
spread.
ID papers, travel papers, check points, security police, secret police, home security,
all are part of and symptoms of a global war.
The secret is simple and Canadians are in 2003 going to begin to assert a cure. Defend
the Charter of Rights, recognise what it means to be a part of a free and
open society and do the right thing.
This new year is the time that we will pull out the essentials of what we are and
that will be good enough, for now.
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Real Stuff
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- Microsoft is redirecting its company to widen its base and
include more hardware and reduce its reliance upon software sales
- Gold is about to show a remarkable rise in value as the US
dollar continues to decline taking with it the Canadian dollar which will pick up
a penny or two through the year but in actual value will decline against other world
currency. The Canadian economy is now to closely aligned with the US economy to
hold it self up even though the Canadian economy is expected to grow in 2003 and
the trade margin keeps the country well in the black.
- Tisdale's ethanol plant will be announced mid winter with
construction planned to begin in the spring of 2004.
- Metal values, now seriously depressed will begin to rise modestly
in March about the same time as Canada announces a series of large defense contracts
and Canadian arms manufacturers will enjoy 2003 as their export markets jump.
- Remember pump prices lag behind production prices by more
than eight months. Buy a bicycle as record prices will be set in Canada in June
only to go even higher in August.
- Though the federal government's budget in the spring will
show money on the way to medical care and defense it will be a deficit budget and
inflation is ticking once more as 2003 sees Canadian interest rates rise about 3%.
Provincial governments all across the country will put more money into health care,
about 12% more and the public will not be upset at the move by all ten provinces
to move into the red.
- By the end of 2003 when someone takes out a camera, it will
be a digital camera and the guy with the film will be the odd man out.
- Tisdale's "AAA" Trojans will make it to the "Air
Canada Cup" for the second year in a row.
- In Canada and the United States 2003 will see more insect
repellent sold than ever before as West Nile Marches onward.
- As mentioned earlier 2003 will be the year of storms and this
will be particularly true of the number of hurricanes thumping the US South Eastern
states.
- A lot of talk about various affects of the Kyoto Protocol
but few real developments. The federal government will begin a series of studies
on high speed rail transportation and there will be a lot of talk about returning
Air Canada to being a crown corporation.
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Next year on New Year's Eve you have a better than 60% chance
of looking back on 2003 and nodding satisfactorily, and mutter a Canadianism, "not
bad!" |
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To each of you I wish you a very Happy New Year. It is up to you to make the best
of what ever comes your way.
Timothy
W. Shire
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News
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This page is a story posted on Ensign and/or Saskatchewan
News, both of which are daily web sites offering a variety of material from scenic
images, political commentary, information and news. These publications are the work
of Faster Than Light Communications . If you would like to comment on this story or you wish to contact
the editor of these sites please send us email. |
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Editor : Timothy W. Shire
Faster Than Light Communication
Box 1776, Tisdale, Saskatchewan, Canada, S0E 1T0
306 873 2004
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