South Asia
Aug 24, 2007

On the Pakistani side, the leader of the opposition in Parliament, Maulana Fazlur Rahman, recently traveled to Quetta, Balochistan province, to meet with local Taliban commanders under Mullah Mansoor (brother of slain Taliban commander Mullah Dadullah), and apparently Rahman made a major breakthrough.

Asia Times Online contacts in Quetta confirm that Rahman held talks with representatives of Mullah Mansoor, and they promised to pass on Rahman's message for approval. In essence, this calls for holding small jirgas (councils) with the Taliban and related parties, such as tribal elders, at various sites in Pakistan and Afghanistan at which Rahman would act as mediator. Rahman's role has already been approved by the administration of President Hamid Karzai in Kabul, as well as by the Western coalition. All that is needed now is the Taliban's approval.

The significance of the small jirgas is that they will involve the Taliban, unlike the recent peace jirga in Kabul, which the Taliban boycotted.

"If there is a positive response from the Taliban, it could mean a ceasefire in the near future, at least in Kandahar and Helmand [provinces in southeastern Afghanistan]. Once this process goes on smoothly, it would guarantee regional peace," a senior Pakistani official told Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity.

The main player in the game is Pakistan, which is also seen as a vital corridor for Asian energy supplies once Central Asian oil and gas reserves secure a trouble-free route through Afghanistan.

Pakistan's leadership unanimously agrees that a peace deal with the Taliban is the only solution to the region's unrest. President General Pervez Musharraf stated as much during the peace jirga involving hundreds of representatives from both Afghanistan and Pakistan. It remains for Washington to commit fully to a permanent policy for a political settlement.

An official of a Kabul-based European body that has had a major role in facilitating the talks between the Taliban and coalition forces confirmed to Asia Times Online, on condition of anonymity, that high-level talks between Taliban commanders and coalition forces through Rocketti and Zaeef had taken place in an attempt to find a broader political settlement.

Indeed, it was these talks that paved the way for the dialogue in Quetta as guarantees were given for the safety of the Taliban in Quetta.

Should a ceasefire emerge, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan are expected to meet to sign a security contract with regard to an oil and gas pipeline project worth US$10 billion that will run from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan to Pakistan, the TAP, and possibly on to India. International Oil Co of the US recently won the contract from Pakistan to construct the 2,200-kilometer pipeline over the next three years.

The pipeline will run through Kandahar and on to Pakistan's Gwadar Port. The US-backed project is aimed to outflank Russia and Iran in the regional energy game. Iran, Pakistan and India are trying to get a pipeline project off the ground linking the three countries. Washington opposes this initiative, and once TAP becomes operational it will severely curtail this venture.

This is not the first time the Taliban have entered dialogue with the Western coalition. Asia Times Online reported on June 14, 2003 (US turns to the Taliban), the first direct talks between Pakistani and US intelligence and the Taliban. Recent reports in the German press claim that the Taliban and German intelligence met in 2005 in Germany, while British officials certainly met with the Taliban in Helmand last year.

However, none of these initiatives was able to achieve sustainable results. The main stumbling blocks were Washington's tough line on the Taliban, while that group wanted all or nothing, that is, the complete withdrawal of foreign troops and the handover of power to them - a "complete victory".

In the United States' case, it is obsessed with removing Taliban leader Mullah Omar before the group can be given any political role. The Taliban have always dismissed this out of hand. As a result, Washington has terminated the dialogue and proceeded with the military option.

Retired Lieutenant0General Asad Durrani, former director general of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Military Intelligence, told Asia Times Online, "Conventional wisdom suggests a dialogue process, even during a conflict. We have

"It is difficult for a state to negotiate with people whom it brands as terrorists, but intelligence agencies always keep their back channels open," said Durrani, who was also Pakistani ambassador to Germany and Saudi Arabia and who retains active

"MI6 [the British Secret Intelligence Service] always does that. Washington has taken a tough line against the Taliban, but these latest reports of a peace dialogue suggest that saner [heads] are prevailing. This approach should continue. Nobody agrees in the first phase, but as the dialogue continues, ways will open for settlements," said Durrani.

The president of the Institute of Regional Studies (IRS), retired Major-General Jamshed Ayaz Khan, elaborated, "Afghanistan, Pakistan, the US and European countries have a common interest in a peaceful Afghanistan." The IRS is a major Pakistan think-tank that assists national institutions in policymaking.

"This is a war of energy resources, and until complete peace is ensured, nothing can be achieved," said Khan. "Pakistan is a major stakeholder in this game, as once pipeline projects materialize, Pakistan's GDP [gross domestic product] will increase 2%. However, there is a need for Washington, the only superpower in the world, to devise a permanent and broader policy for a political settlement with the Taliban.

"European countries like the Netherlands, Britain, Germany and France have a policy of reconciliation, but it will never work until Washington makes up its mind over a reasonable political settlement with the Taliban," Khan said.

Khan believes that successful talks can be held with the Taliban if a pragmatic approach is applied and Pakistan's role is recognized.

"President General Pervez Musharraf has already played a significant role in paving the way for the dialogue process by saying at the [Kabul] jirga that a peace deal with the Taliban is a road for peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan has been saying this from the beginning. Pakistan deliberately did not keep the window closed with the Taliban by retaining diplomatic channels with them [before the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001]. Washington, however, kept a tough line after September 11 [2001] and denied the Taliban's role without realizing that the Taliban are the sons of the soil.

"They [Taliban] cannot leave Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda is a foreign element, but the Taliban are local. Similarly, the Taliban are not terrorists. Al-Qaeda are terrorists. The Taliban's only crime was in providing a safe sanctuary to al-Qaeda, that's why they were targeted, but now is the time for the world superpower to bring flexibility into its stance," Khan said.

"A step-by-step approach will obviously work. Initially, the focus should be on a ceasefire during the dialogue. Reconstruction projects, like building watercourses and dams, should be the next step. The Taliban will certainly allow them, as they are local. They cannot oppose that. This initial phase would build up the environment for the next phase, in which political settlements could be discussed," Khan said.

When questioned on the Taliban's demand for "total victory", Khan said this could be overcome. "'Victory' is a relative term. Once the process gradually starts and makes inroads, it will eventually reach a political settlement. And on that level, it would be a victory for both the Taliban and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

"And once this dialogue process begins, other factors come into play," said Khan. "War fatigue is a big thing. No matter how strong and committed a guerrilla commander is, at some stage he will be fatigued. That could be a turning point for a settlement. Of course, Mullah Omar is a central leader, but there are other significant commanders who could be negotiated with separately.

"Pakistan can play an important role in this direction, but it cannot do it alone. The ISI has already been much maligned, so Washington's engagement is a must.

"But Washington needs to realize one thing. The ultimate objective in this whole game is to secure a route through Afghanistan [for oil and gas] to the warm waters of Gwadar. Soviet Russia attacked Afghanistan for the same thing, but it kept posturing as an enemy and therefore not only failed to achieve the objective but disintegrated. Washington needs to take a lesson and adopt a friendly posture. If it does so, things will certainly change in its favor," concluded Khan.