Why Canada should not ratify Kyoto

Why Canada should not ratify Kyoto

Surrey, B.C. - Saturday, August 31, 2002 - by: Phyllis H. Hubeli

lower
standard
of living
Mr. Chretien may want a grand last gesture but ratifying Kyoto will not give him the legacy he is looking for. He should wait until after the next Kyoto meeting in November, where it will be decided if the other Kyoto signatory countries will accept Canada's clean-energy concept, before he makes any decision about ratification. To ratify before knowing this would be foolish and costly. The government of Alberta and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce have predicted a $40 billion cost to meet our obligations under Kyoto. This money could be put to better use. Allan Rock, in April, stated he believed that implementing it would lower our standard of living.

one
sided
The Liberal government has a web site with information on global warming. Rather than offer a well balanced site where all sides of the issue are presented, allowing Canadians to read and make up their own mind based on all available information, the Liberals have chosen to supply only that information which suits their purpose.

3,000
scientists
A search of the government's site, looking for the Heidelberg Appeal which cautions about the "irrational ideology" at the forefront of global warming science draws a blank in spite of the fact that more than 3,000 scientists from 106 countries, including 72 Nobel Prize winners, have signed this appeal.

C0₂
You won't find any information on the anti-Kyoto Leipzig Declaration, either. This one has the signatures of approximately 1,500 scientists. Ditto for the Oregon Petition to which 17,000 signatories have endorsed the statement that

"there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the earth's atmosphere and disruption of the earth's climate."

damage
health
and
welfare
Dr. Frederick Seitz, the former president of the National Academy of Sciences, president emeritus of Rockerfeller University is the sponsor another petition which states that

"proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advancement of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind."

It has been signed by more than 18,000 scientists, including atmospheric scientists, climatologists and meteorologists. You won't find it on the government's web site either.

IS GLOBAL WARMING REALLY OCCURRING AND, IF SO, ARE WE RESPONSIBLE?

insignificant
increase
According to the Global Warming Information Page at, Accu-Weather, the world's leading commercial forecaster, says

"Global air temperatures, as measured by land-based weather stations, show an increase of about 0.45°C over the past century. This may be no more than normal climatic variation...[and] several biases in the data may be responsible for some of this increase."

However, information from satellite data indicates that there has actually been a slight cooling in the climate during the last eighteen years. As these satellites use advance technology they are not subject to the "heat island" effect around major cities that alter readings from ground-based weather stations.

solar
peak
Warming and cooling phases are natural to the earth. The Little Ice Age ended in the 1850s and the earth has been warming very gradually since that time. Some scientist believe that the earth's warming cycles are a result of solar activity. One peak of solar flares occurred in 2000 and a second, unexpected peak in solar flares, occurred late in 2001, extending into early 2002.

computer
models
inconclusive
To date it is impossible to accurately project future climate changes. Previous computer models did predict warming over the next century but because the effects of cloud formations, winds, precipitation, the roll that oceans or the sun play, had not been factored in, the accuracy of these predictions was doubtful. Even scientists who worked on these models were quick to point out that they were far from perfect representations of what will take place and they should not be used as a basis for implementing policy. Newer computer climate models are more sophisticated and their prediction of temperature increase is lower than that of the older models.

human
action
2%
If global carbon-dioxide emissions are severely restricted, science is not clear what impact, if any, it would have on the world's climate. While 98% of the total global greenhouse gas emissions are natural, being mostly water vapour, humans are responsible for 2% of these greenhouses gases. Thus it is obvious that man-made emissions have had only a miniscule impact and it would be foolish to implement Draconian remedies.

most
warming
prior to 1940
It is agreed that the climate has warmed slightly in the past hundred years but we should know that 70% of this global warming occurred prior to 1940 according to Dr. Robert C. Balling of Arizona State University and that was before much of the increase in greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes occurred.

WHAT CANADIANS HAVE ALREADY DONE TO CLEAN UP POLLUTION

positive
steps
As we see, humans are responsible for only a minute portion of global warming. This does not say that we Canadians have been complaisant and doing nothing to clean up pollution. In fact North Americans have been doing the right things for some time now.

Kyoto
delay
progress
There is not a Canadian who does not want to breath cleaner air, drink cleaner water and have a cleaner environment. Unfortunately, ratifying Kyoto will not give them to us. It is entirely possible that ratifying Kyoto will actually delay our progress toward obtaining these things.

air
pollution
getting
better
Canadians have been led to believe that environmental degradation has worsened over the last few decades but the truth is out there. As statistics professor Bjorn Lomborg observes in his book The Skeptical Environmentalist:

"Air pollution is not a new phenomenon that has gotten worse and worse -- it is an old phenomenon that has been getting better and better."

North
America
absorbs more
CO₂ than
it makes
Plant life breaths in carbon dioxide and exhales oxygen. In an article in Science Magazine, published on Oct. 16, 1998, it stated that North America removes more carbon dioxide (about two billion tons) from the atmosphere than is created by all North American sources (about 1.5 billion tons) each year. The reason given for this is the tremendous regrowth of forests in the Eastern United States (and Canada) in the past 100 years. In Canada we harvest less than half a percent of our commercial forest area each year and, on a yearly basis, we grow twice as much wood as we remove.

getting
better
We have been cleaning up other areas of pollution as well. An Environment Canada report states:

"Since the early 1970s, the overall air quality in Canadian cities has generally improved due to cleaner-burning engines, cleaner gasoline, more and better scrubbers in industrial smokestacks, cleaner industrial processes and improving energy efficiency."

dramatic
decline
Between 1972 and 1985 phosphorous levels in Lake Erie and Lake Ontario dropped by four-fifths. Since 1974 lead concentrations in the air in Canada fell by 97%. Since 1980, the number of days in which smog levels have exceeded federal guidelines fell by half. Between 1980 and 1999, sulphur-dioxide emissions were more than halved in eastern Canada. As well, there has been a dramatic decline in other chemicals such as PCBs and DDE (a variant of DDT).

THE COSTS OF IMPLEMENTING KYOTO

industry
will
leave
If Kyoto is implemented, the cost to Canadians will be very high. The energy-intensive industries in Ontario and elsewhere and the older smoke-stack industries will not be able to compete. Because of this companies could close plants here and reopen in underdeveloped countries which have not ratified Kyoto.

unemployment
The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters Association calculate that 450,000 manufacturing jobs would be lost over the 20 year period which ratifying Kyoto would commit us to. The loss of those 450,000 jobs is going to cut deeply into the government's tax revenue which means that funds for government services would have to be cut. It will further affect business because, without jobs, Canadians will not have the spending power to keep other businesses alive. They too will fail and this trend will continue in a domino effect. Ontario, as the largest private sector employer, would be the most affected but no province would escape and equalization payments could become a thing of the past which means all Canada will suffer.

affect
all
Canadians
The oil and gas producing provinces of Alberta, British Columbia and Newfoundland will be hard hit but a carbon tax will affect all Canadians and will affect poorer Canadians the most. Most of the income of the poor is spent on necessities which would have to be cut back to compensate for higher living costs.

cost
passed to
comsumer
The burden of paying for Kyoto will fall on the shoulders of ordinary Canadians because the corporate cost of implementing it will be passed on to the consumer. The carbon tax will impose further hardship in our cold Canadian climate as we must heat our homes, use our appliances and the majority of us must drive to work and elsewhere.

nothing
to gain
Canadians have a great deal to lose and very little, if anything, to gain if Jean Chretien decides that signing Kyoto will be his legacy. Before he does we should make our voices heard in opposition.

Phyllis H. Hubeli

References:

Calgary Herald , June 6, 2002

Government of Canada Web site

Global Warming Information Page

National Post - various dates

Global-warming scaremongers still have the upper hand in Ottawa The Report - April 29, 2002 issue

Times Colonist (Victoria) - Aug. 29, 2002



Why Canada should not ratify Kyoto

Surrey, B.C. - Saturday, August 31, 2002 - by: Phyllis H. Hubeli

lower standard of living	Mr. Chretien may want a grand last gesture but ratifying Kyoto will not give him the legacy he is looking for. He should wait until after the next Kyoto meeting in November, where it will be decided if the other Kyoto signatory countries will accept Canada's clean-energy concept, before he makes any decision about ratification. To ratify before knowing this would be foolish and costly. The government of Alberta and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce have predicted a $40 billion cost to meet our obligations under Kyoto. This money could be put to better use. Allan Rock, in April, stated he believed that implementing it would lower our standard of living.

one sided	The Liberal government has a web site with information on global warming. Rather than offer a well balanced site where all sides of the issue are presented, allowing Canadians to read and make up their own mind based on all available information, the Liberals have chosen to supply only that information which suits their purpose.

3,000 scientists	A search of the government's site, looking for the Heidelberg Appeal which cautions about the "irrational ideology" at the forefront of global warming science draws a blank in spite of the fact that more than 3,000 scientists from 106 countries, including 72 Nobel Prize winners, have signed this appeal.

C0₂	You won't find any information on the anti-Kyoto Leipzig Declaration, either. This one has the signatures of approximately 1,500 scientists. Ditto for the Oregon Petition to which 17,000 signatories have endorsed the statement that
C0₂	"there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the earth's atmosphere and disruption of the earth's climate."

damage health and welfare	Dr. Frederick Seitz, the former president of the National Academy of Sciences, president emeritus of Rockerfeller University is the sponsor another petition which states that
	"proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advancement of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind."
	It has been signed by more than 18,000 scientists, including atmospheric scientists, climatologists and meteorologists. You won't find it on the government's web site either.

IS GLOBAL WARMING REALLY OCCURRING AND, IF SO, ARE WE RESPONSIBLE?
insignificant increase	According to the Global Warming Information Page at, Accu-Weather, the world's leading commercial forecaster, says
	"Global air temperatures, as measured by land-based weather stations, show an increase of about 0.45°C over the past century. This may be no more than normal climatic variation...[and] several biases in the data may be responsible for some of this increase."
	However, information from satellite data indicates that there has actually been a slight cooling in the climate during the last eighteen years. As these satellites use advance technology they are not subject to the "heat island" effect around major cities that alter readings from ground-based weather stations.

solar peak	Warming and cooling phases are natural to the earth. The Little Ice Age ended in the 1850s and the earth has been warming very gradually since that time. Some scientist believe that the earth's warming cycles are a result of solar activity. One peak of solar flares occurred in 2000 and a second, unexpected peak in solar flares, occurred late in 2001, extending into early 2002.

computer models inconclusive	To date it is impossible to accurately project future climate changes. Previous computer models did predict warming over the next century but because the effects of cloud formations, winds, precipitation, the roll that oceans or the sun play, had not been factored in, the accuracy of these predictions was doubtful. Even scientists who worked on these models were quick to point out that they were far from perfect representations of what will take place and they should not be used as a basis for implementing policy. Newer computer climate models are more sophisticated and their prediction of temperature increase is lower than that of the older models.

human action 2%	If global carbon-dioxide emissions are severely restricted, science is not clear what impact, if any, it would have on the world's climate. While 98% of the total global greenhouse gas emissions are natural, being mostly water vapour, humans are responsible for 2% of these greenhouses gases. Thus it is obvious that man-made emissions have had only a miniscule impact and it would be foolish to implement Draconian remedies.

most warming prior to 1940	It is agreed that the climate has warmed slightly in the past hundred years but we should know that 70% of this global warming occurred prior to 1940 according to Dr. Robert C. Balling of Arizona State University and that was before much of the increase in greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes occurred.

WHAT CANADIANS HAVE ALREADY DONE TO CLEAN UP POLLUTION
positive steps	As we see, humans are responsible for only a minute portion of global warming. This does not say that we Canadians have been complaisant and doing nothing to clean up pollution. In fact North Americans have been doing the right things for some time now.

Kyoto delay progress	There is not a Canadian who does not want to breath cleaner air, drink cleaner water and have a cleaner environment. Unfortunately, ratifying Kyoto will not give them to us. It is entirely possible that ratifying Kyoto will actually delay our progress toward obtaining these things.

air pollution getting better	Canadians have been led to believe that environmental degradation has worsened over the last few decades but the truth is out there. As statistics professor Bjorn Lomborg observes in his book The Skeptical Environmentalist:
air pollution getting better	"Air pollution is not a new phenomenon that has gotten worse and worse -- it is an old phenomenon that has been getting better and better."

North America absorbs more CO₂ than it makes	Plant life breaths in carbon dioxide and exhales oxygen. In an article in Science Magazine, published on Oct. 16, 1998, it stated that North America removes more carbon dioxide (about two billion tons) from the atmosphere than is created by all North American sources (about 1.5 billion tons) each year. The reason given for this is the tremendous regrowth of forests in the Eastern United States (and Canada) in the past 100 years. In Canada we harvest less than half a percent of our commercial forest area each year and, on a yearly basis, we grow twice as much wood as we remove.

getting better	We have been cleaning up other areas of pollution as well. An Environment Canada report states:
getting better	"Since the early 1970s, the overall air quality in Canadian cities has generally improved due to cleaner-burning engines, cleaner gasoline, more and better scrubbers in industrial smokestacks, cleaner industrial processes and improving energy efficiency."

dramatic decline	Between 1972 and 1985 phosphorous levels in Lake Erie and Lake Ontario dropped by four-fifths. Since 1974 lead concentrations in the air in Canada fell by 97%. Since 1980, the number of days in which smog levels have exceeded federal guidelines fell by half. Between 1980 and 1999, sulphur-dioxide emissions were more than halved in eastern Canada. As well, there has been a dramatic decline in other chemicals such as PCBs and DDE (a variant of DDT).

THE COSTS OF IMPLEMENTING KYOTO
industry will leave	If Kyoto is implemented, the cost to Canadians will be very high. The energy-intensive industries in Ontario and elsewhere and the older smoke-stack industries will not be able to compete. Because of this companies could close plants here and reopen in underdeveloped countries which have not ratified Kyoto.

unemployment	The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters Association calculate that 450,000 manufacturing jobs would be lost over the 20 year period which ratifying Kyoto would commit us to. The loss of those 450,000 jobs is going to cut deeply into the government's tax revenue which means that funds for government services would have to be cut. It will further affect business because, without jobs, Canadians will not have the spending power to keep other businesses alive. They too will fail and this trend will continue in a domino effect. Ontario, as the largest private sector employer, would be the most affected but no province would escape and equalization payments could become a thing of the past which means all Canada will suffer.

affect all Canadians	The oil and gas producing provinces of Alberta, British Columbia and Newfoundland will be hard hit but a carbon tax will affect all Canadians and will affect poorer Canadians the most. Most of the income of the poor is spent on necessities which would have to be cut back to compensate for higher living costs.

cost passed to comsumer	The burden of paying for Kyoto will fall on the shoulders of ordinary Canadians because the corporate cost of implementing it will be passed on to the consumer. The carbon tax will impose further hardship in our cold Canadian climate as we must heat our homes, use our appliances and the majority of us must drive to work and elsewhere.

nothing to gain	Canadians have a great deal to lose and very little, if anything, to gain if Jean Chretien decides that signing Kyoto will be his legacy. Before he does we should make our voices heard in opposition.

	Phyllis H. Hubeli

References:
	*Calgary Herald* , June 6, 2002

	Government of Canada Web site

	Global Warming Information Page

	National Post - various dates

	Global-warming scaremongers still have the upper hand in Ottawa *The Report* - April 29, 2002 issue

	Times Colonist (Victoria) - Aug. 29, 2002