Elderly Population Scenarios for North East
Health District: |
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Nipawin - May 28, 2001 - By: Mario deSantis and reviewed by James deSantis | |
regression |
In 1995, realizing that Saskatchewan Health was using uncommunicative research to direct |
health reform I wrote the paper "A Model for Forecasting the Elderly Populations of | |
Saskatchewan Health District Boards: Working Example for Prairie West Health District(1)." | |
In this paper, I used the simple regression analysis method to forecast the elderly | |
population for the Prairie West Health District, and the rationale for using this method | |
was two fold; firstly, I didn't know any better method, and secondly, I wanted to use a | |
method which could readily be understood and used by anybody with a bit of knowledge | |
in spreadsheet programming. | |
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evidence |
Today we have the System Dynamics methodology to model complex changing systems(2); |
however, our research institutions have been reluctant to abandon the highly manipulative | |
tools of "evidence based statistical analysis(3)" and have continued with their protective | |
fashion, covering up important assumptions, using data selectively to support their | |
prejudices, and acting like an oracle(4)(5). | |
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not an |
Modeling population projections is not an exact science but an iterative and reflective |
effort shared by all the concerned parties. Today, as I reflect on the population study | |
for the North East Health District, I understand the importance to know a better | |
projection for the future elderly population of the North East Health District for | |
health planning. | |
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one year |
Therefore, I have the further insight to consider age grouping of one year rather than |
five years for people with age over sixty-four. Sheena MacRae, Information Analyst | |
with Saskatchewan Health, provided me with the additional information I required for | |
this elderly population scenarios for the NEHD district and the results have been tabulated. | |
------------References/endnotes: | |
A Model for Forecasting the Elderly Populations of Saskatchewan Health District Boards by Mario deSantis, February 1995 http://www3.sk.sympatico.ca/desam/paper-popmodel-regr.htm | |
System Dynamics Society http://www.albany.edu/cpr/sds/ | |
If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts'--quote by Albert Einstein | |
Business Dynamics, John D. Sterman, section 'Protective versus Reflective Modelling,' page 858 http://www.mhhe.com/business/opsci/sterman/ | |
The incredible abuse of Saskatchewan No-Fault insurance, by Mario deSantis and reviewed by James deSantis, May 28, 2000 |