A Dramatic Scenario Of Saskatchewan Changing Demography: The Aboriginal People Are Our Forgotten People

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A Dramatic Scenario Of Saskatchewan Changing Demography:
The Aboriginal People Are Our Forgotten People

Nipawin - January 20, 2001 - by: Mario deSantis

fragmentary
economic
policy
Our provincial aboriginal social policies have been focused in the last ten years on Native

claims, on Aboriginal self-government, and on economic development through gambling.

We are in a so called Knowledge economy, yet our government has not provided the

opportunities for our Aboriginal people to learn. Our government has continued a fragmentary

economic policy of divide and conquer with the result to extend the social condition for

the benefit of the few and privileged within our Aboriginal community. The office of the

provincial auditor has reported the poor predicament of our children living on reserves⁽¹⁾.

Our provincial jails include over 9,000 Aboriginal prisoners.

social and
economic
policies
I have previously reported the financial liability for not educating our poor children⁽²⁾ Today

I want to provide a dramatic scenario for the future demographic changes of our province. This

scenario is not a prediction or a forecast of the growth of the Aboriginal people in

Saskatchewan; it is just a reasonable scenario to emphasize, today and not tomorrow, the need

to address social and economic policies towards our Aboriginal population.

---------------A scenario of growth for the Aboriginal population:

The registered Indian population living on reserves increased to 38,444 in 1996

24%

from 30,893 in 1991, that is a population jump of 24% in a span of 5 years⁽³⁾.

The registered Indian population living on and off reserve increased to 90,797 in

2000 from 74,095 in 1996, that is a jump of 23% in a span of 4 years⁽⁴⁾.

14%
The registered and non registered Aboriginal population is presently 14% of the total

population⁽⁵⁾. In July 2000 there were 1,021,762 people covered by Saskatchewan Health.

Therefore, there were close to 143,047 registered and non registered Aboriginal people

living in Saskatchewan in July 2000.

From the statistics provided above we have an indication that the net growth of the registered

5% per year
and non registered Aboriginal population could have been in the order of 5% per year.

one million
people
Let us now provide a scenario of the growth of the Aboriginal population between the years

2000 and 2040 under the premise that this population is 143,047 in July 2000, and that this

population grows at the rate of 5% per year. I have simulated the growth of the Aboriginal

population and after 40 years this population reaches the value of one million people.

social and
economic consequences
You can refer to the following pictures reporting the details of this simulation run through

the Vensim⁽⁶⁾ software package. But what is important to notice is that the Saskatchewan

total population has been stagnant at about one million people for the last decades, and now

we are presenting a reasonable scenario, as at this time, that the Aboriginal population could

reach one million people in the year 2040. I leave to the readers and to our politicians ponder

about the social and economic consequences for not addressing today the changing

demography of this province.

------------References/endnotes:

List of relevant political and economics articles http://ensign.ftlcomm.com

1.
-
1999 Fall Report, Volume 2, Report of the Provincial Auditor, Saskatchewan, Chapter 2, Education, pages 117-132

2.
-
Honourable Eric Cline has not balanced the budget yet, he forgot our school-children, by Mario deSantis, April 2, 2000

3.
-
Census Population, 1991 & 1996, Communities & Regions, INDIAN RESERVES, Saskatchewan Bureau of Statistics

4.
-
-
-
People registered under the Indian Act living on and off reserve was 74,095 in 1996 (Statistics Canada, Census 1996) and it increased to 90,797 in 2000 (Appendix 1-2000 Covered Population, Saskatchewan Health). http://www.statcan.ca:80/english/Pgdb/People/Population/demo37.htm http://www.gov.sk.ca/health/covpop2000/CovPopBook2000.pdf

5.
Aboriginals poised to irrevocably alter political landscape, by Adam Killick, National Post, February 07, 2000

6.
A free of charge educational package for Vensim software is available at http://www.vensim.com

- - A Dramatic Scenario Of Saskatchewan Changing Demography: The Aboriginal People Are Our Forgotten People
Nipawin - January 20, 2001 - by: Mario deSantis

fragmentary economic policy	Our provincial aboriginal social policies have been focused in the last ten years on Native
	claims, on Aboriginal self-government, and on economic development through gambling.
	We are in a so called Knowledge economy, yet our government has not provided the
	opportunities for our Aboriginal people to learn. Our government has continued a fragmentary
	economic policy of divide and conquer with the result to extend the social condition for
	the benefit of the few and privileged within our Aboriginal community. The office of the
	provincial auditor has reported the poor predicament of our children living on reserves⁽¹⁾.
	Our provincial jails include over 9,000 Aboriginal prisoners.

social and economic policies	I have previously reported the financial liability for not educating our poor children⁽²⁾ Today
	I want to provide a dramatic scenario for the future demographic changes of our province. This
	scenario is not a prediction or a forecast of the growth of the Aboriginal people in
	Saskatchewan; it is just a reasonable scenario to emphasize, today and not tomorrow, the need
	to address social and economic policies towards our Aboriginal population.

---------------A scenario of growth for the Aboriginal population:
	The registered Indian population living on reserves increased to 38,444 in 1996
24%	from 30,893 in 1991, that is a population jump of 24% in a span of 5 years⁽³⁾.

	The registered Indian population living on and off reserve increased to 90,797 in
	2000 from 74,095 in 1996, that is a jump of 23% in a span of 4 years⁽⁴⁾.

14%	The registered and non registered Aboriginal population is presently 14% of the total
	population⁽⁵⁾. In July 2000 there were 1,021,762 people covered by Saskatchewan Health.
	Therefore, there were close to 143,047 registered and non registered Aboriginal people
	living in Saskatchewan in July 2000.

	From the statistics provided above we have an indication that the net growth of the registered
5% per year	and non registered Aboriginal population could have been in the order of 5% per year.

one million people	Let us now provide a scenario of the growth of the Aboriginal population between the years
	2000 and 2040 under the premise that this population is 143,047 in July 2000, and that this
	population grows at the rate of 5% per year. I have simulated the growth of the Aboriginal
	population and after 40 years this population reaches the value of one million people.

social and economic consequences	You can refer to the following pictures reporting the details of this simulation run through
	the Vensim⁽⁶⁾ software package. But what is important to notice is that the Saskatchewan
	total population has been stagnant at about one million people for the last decades, and now
	we are presenting a reasonable scenario, as at this time, that the Aboriginal population could
	reach one million people in the year 2040. I leave to the readers and to our politicians ponder
	about the social and economic consequences for not addressing today the changing
	demography of this province.



------------References/endnotes:

	List of relevant political and economics articles http://ensign.ftlcomm.com

1. -	1999 Fall Report, Volume 2, Report of the Provincial Auditor, Saskatchewan, Chapter 2, Education, pages 117-132

2. -	Honourable Eric Cline has not balanced the budget yet, he forgot our school-children, by Mario deSantis, April 2, 2000

3. -	Census Population, 1991 & 1996, Communities & Regions, INDIAN RESERVES, Saskatchewan Bureau of Statistics

4. - - -	People registered under the Indian Act living on and off reserve was 74,095 in 1996 (Statistics Canada, Census 1996) and it increased to 90,797 in 2000 (Appendix 1-2000 Covered Population, Saskatchewan Health). http://www.statcan.ca:80/english/Pgdb/People/Population/demo37.htm http://www.gov.sk.ca/health/covpop2000/CovPopBook2000.pdf

5.	Aboriginals poised to irrevocably alter political landscape, by Adam Killick, National Post, February 07, 2000

6.	A free of charge educational package for Vensim software is available at http://www.vensim.com